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KMID : 0359720100280010013
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Journal of the Korean Neurological Association
2010 Volume.28 No. 1 p.13 ~ p.21
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Development of a Stroke Prediction Model for Korean
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Lee Ji-Sung
Park Jong-Moo
Park Tae-Hwan
Lee Kyung-Bok
Lee Soo-Joo
Cho Yong-Jin
Han Moon-Ku
Bae Hee-Joon
Lee June-Young
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Abstract
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Background: Assessing an individual’s risk of stroke can be a starting point for stroke prevention. The aim of this study was to develop a stroke prediction model that can be applied to the Korean population, using the best available current knowledge.
Methods: A sex- and age-specific stroke prediction model that is applicable specifically to Koreans was developed using Gail’s breast cancer prediction model, which is based on competing risk theory.
Results: The relative risks for major stroke risk factors, including hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, atrial fibrillation, ischemic heart disease, previous stroke, obesity, and smoking status, were obtained from a recent systematic review of stroke risk factors among Koreans. The results were incorporated into the concept of a proportional hazard regression model. For baseline age- and sex-specific hazard rates for stroke, we employed Jee’s 10-year stroke-risk prediction model with its reference categories for predictor variables. Death-certificate data from the Korea National Statistical Office were used to calculate competing risks of stroke in our model.
Conclusions: Our prediction model for stroke incidence may be useful for predicting an individual’s risk of stroke based on his/her age, sex, and risk factors. This model will contribute to the development of individualized risk-specific guidelines for the prevention of stroke.
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KEYWORD
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Korean, Stroke, Risk Prediction
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